Simulation models that turn ratings, polls, and results into probabilities, plus a redistricting project that redraws all 435 US House seats.
Projected wins, playoff odds, and Super Bowl chances for all 32 teams, updated every week of the season.
| # | Team | Wins | Playoffs | Win Super Bowl |
|---|
Final forecasts for all 125 Kansas House seats, the six statewide races, and Kansas's four U.S. House seats.
Proposed fair, representative districts for all 435 seats, with presidential and implied House results and fairness measures against the lines actually used.
| Measure | Proposed | 2026 lines |
|---|
Measured on the 2024 presidential vote, two-party share, so candidates and incumbency don't muddy the comparison.
NFL. Every team carries an Elo rating with a separate quarterback adjustment. The rest of the season is played out 100,000 times to get each team's range of records, playoff seeds, Super Bowl odds, and draft position.
Kansas. Each of the 125 House districts gets a win probability, and the full election is simulated with a shared statewide swing to get the seat totals. The statewide and U.S. House races blend a fundamentals estimate with a polling average.
Fair maps. Proposed districts for every state, scored on past presidential and House results and compared with the lines actually in use.
Forecasts are probabilities, not predictions. A 70% favorite should still lose about three times in ten.