Forecast for Kansas's six statewide races and four U.S. House seats on November 3. Each race blends a fundamentals estimate (partisanship, the national environment, incumbency, candidates and money) with a weighted average of public polls.
Statewide races
Democratic win chance · margins are Republican minus Democrat
U.S. House
Democratic win chance · same method as the Senate race, district by district
Each card builds the forecast in the same rows as the district cards in the Kansas House forecast: baseline partisanship, generic ballot shift, incumbency, candidate quality and campaign finance add up to the fundamentals, which are then blended with the polling average. Open Show the math on any race to see every term and variance with its formula.
House races vs the federal baseline
Current district lines (2022 map). Expected = the district's presidential lean vs the nation (same year, or the prior one in a midterm) + generic ballot × elasticity + incumbency. Each miss feeds the candidate ratings, fit jointly with the statewide races.
Each district card uses the Senate race's method: baseline partisanship is the district's 2024 presidential margin relative to the nation, the full generic-ballot shift applies, and candidate ratings come from the same joint fit. Campaign finance uses FEC candidate spending with a $625K visibility threshold (the statewide $2.5M split across four districts).
Baseline partisanship
Senate: Kansas 2024 presidential lean vs the nation. Governor: average lean of governor races. Other state offices: average lean of past statewide-office results.
Candidate ratings
R−D points; negative = ran ahead for Democrats or behind for Republicans. Fit from every 2014–2024 race's miss vs its baseline; older races count less (weight halves every 8 years), and each miss is credited by candidate profile.
Candidate profiles: who a race's miss is credited to
Judgment calls. Each race's miss vs its baseline is split between the two candidates in proportion to their prior variance. High-profile candidates get 1.5× the usual spread and low-profile or underfunded ones 0.5×, so a race against a well-known opponent is read mostly as that opponent's result (a High vs Low race splits about 90 / 10). Everyone else splits evenly.
State-office results, 2014–2022
Lean = margin − generic ballot × elasticity − incumbency bonus. Rows marked "state" are averaged for the AG, SoS, Treasurer and Insurance baseline; rows marked "gov" are the governor races in the Governor baseline. 2010 is left out of the averages and the candidate ratings: its Kansas-specific wave swing would otherwise land on individual candidates.
Senate races vs the federal baseline
Expected = presidential lean vs nation (same year, or prior in a midterm) + generic ballot × elasticity + incumbency. The miss feeds candidate ratings.